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Power price trend (Brazil)

image credit: Rafael Herzberg
Rafael Herzberg's picture
Consultant energy affairs, Self employed

Rafael Herzberg- is an independent energy consultant, self-employed (since 2018) based in São Paulo, Brazil* Focus on C level, VPs and upper managers associated to energy related info, analysis...

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  • Feb 7, 2021
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Power price trend (Brazil)

A look with a medium and long-term perspective points to an important increase in electricity costs in our country.

The math is very simple! Please note 1 USD = R$ 5,3.

* Investment in the expansion of power generation - R$ 11 thousand/kW
* Monthly interest rate including country risk - 1.5%
* Amortization term - 20 years

Results:

* Monthly investment amortization - R$ 170/month/kW
* Monthly production of 1 kW installed - 500 kWh
* Amortization cost related to power produced - R$ 340/MWh

It is also necessary to consider that the national matrix presents 30% of thermal generation, which besides the amortization (above) includes the cost of fuel, which is of the order of R$ 200/MWh of power delivered by the plant.

* 70% renewable energy @ R$ 340/MWh
* 30% thermal energy @ R$ 540/MWh
* Weighted average results R$ 400/MWh

The tariffs granted by ANEEL, for ENEL (concessionaire that operates in the greater São Paulocity) is of the order of R$ 300/MWh for the energy component, averaging peak and off-peak rates).

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