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No, not Peak Oil again?

image credit: https://rmi.org/insight/peaks-why-they-matter/
Sandy Lawrence's picture
retired MD I write and lecture on energy, climate, grid, and epidemiology

I post almost daily on science topics, dealing with energy systems, the climate system, the electric grid and epidemiology. Background is in academic medicine, but I have also been teaching in...

  • Member since 2021
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  • Sep 2, 2022
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Rocky Mountain Institute: "Peaking: the Series" RMI has done foundational research on energy for decades. I've pulled out just one graph to show how an energy transtion with electric vehicles will play out. Some observers suspect peak production of fossil fuel vehicles will be as soon as two years. Reminds me of an old quote, perhaps misattributed to either Mark Twain or F. Scott Fitzgerald. And in turn the quotation itself is often a bit mangled. The version I like is: "At first you go bankrupt slowly, then all at once." Welcome to the new world.

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Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Sep 2, 2022

It seems like the situation in Europe has demonstrated that caution is needed before pulling out of fossil fuels completely, but hopefully with the IRA and other policies we're at least heading towards a more decarbonized future

Jim Stack's picture
Jim Stack on Sep 7, 2022

We already hit the Peak in 2016 for Oil and NG. But some fools started Fracking and other Fools allow it so we have the last few drops coming in now. Most Fracked Oil wells drop down in output very fast. A few years and we have a bigger crisis. Did you like the $7 and 8 dollars a gallon recently? get used to it. Look up the real cost of Oil. Check Canada and Europe for real prices coming to your local gas station. Peak ignorance is our real threat. Science keep trying to educate with FACTS but many don't want to listen. 

Sandy Lawrence's picture
Sandy Lawrence on Sep 10, 2022

Jim, I'm with you. The original concept of peak oil for so many decades was that peak oil would be a negative supply shock, but the IPCC has made clear supply in terms of proven and probably reserves may be as much as seven times what the world can tolerate in terms of the remaining carbon budgetary limits before intolerable climate deterioration. I accept more the argument that peak oil [recognized in retrospect, just like recessions] will be a negative demand shock, with municipalities around the US changing building codes to disallow any more natural gas or propane, and with the electrification of transportation. I say this as someone who has been driving an EV for almost a decade. The big companies are finally seeing the graffiti on the walls, though there is a lot of greenwashing and misinformation still sloshing around.

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