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Joe Deely's picture
Partner, Deely Group

Involved with high-tech for last 30 years. Interested in energy.

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  • Jul 18, 2021
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These are list prices and include installation.  I think a pretty standard utility-scale order will be between 10 and 100 Megapacks - with quite a few orders in the 100 megapack range.

Will be interesting to find out if these are high-end prices in comparison to other vendors. Could be like Mac vs PC.

I hope that Tesla regularly updates this pricing page.  Some analysts think that Tesla is close to getting their newest car batteries to below $100 per kWh. If that is the case, then the profit margins on these megapacks will be enormous.  

I guess somebody forgot to tell Tesla that the denomination for their batteries should be "trillions".

 

Discussions
Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Jul 19, 2021

And as is tradition, after Tesla paves new ground here I'm also curious to see how the rest of the market responds and learns in the coming years

Bob Meinetz's picture
Bob Meinetz on Jul 19, 2021

Elsewhere on the homepage at  EnergyCentral.com this morning, we see how unreliable the combination of renewables + batteries is proving in practice - not in the fertile imaginations of renewables activists:

New report from NERC shows California at extreme risk of energy emergencies this summer

"The state started the summer with 675 MW of additional battery storage, with another 825 MW of new battery storage to be added over the summer. However, much of the added generation capacity has come in the form of photovoltaic solar. Until battery storage is robust enough to take much of the solar power into the evening, PV solar power will have a difficult time making an impact during the early-to-late evening hours when demand typically peaks."

Do you know, Joe, if Tesla's price includes the total cost of energy wasted by storage in batteries (16%), or the cost of downtime experienced by millions of customers, or the environmental costs of 104-407kg of added CO2 emissions per megawatthour?

Looks like renewables + batteries are expensive at any price!

Joe Deely's picture
Joe Deely on Jul 19, 2021

Do you know, Joe if Tesla's price includes the total cost of energy wasted by storage in batteries (16%)

Nope didn't see that anywhere- but Tesla mentioned a 94% round-trip efficiency in their "view product details" link. Is that what you are looking for?

Looks like renewables + batteries are expensive at any price!

Just last week I saw a quote that said: "At today's prices, batteries that could match the output of a peaker plant for a single day would cost tens of $billions."

Most peaker plants would run for less than five hours at a time but let's be stupidly conservative here and pretend that they run for 24 hours.  That would mean 50MW x 24 = 1,200 MWh.

 

So the cost dropped from tens of $billions to $334M in just a week. That like a 33x drop. What will the price be next year?

Bob Meinetz's picture
Bob Meinetz on Jul 20, 2021

"Tesla mentioned a 94% round-trip efficiency in their "view product details" link. Is that what you are looking for?"

Nope, saw that. Tesla has conveniently omitted the energy cost of bi-directional inversion.
Unless you're using batteries to light a flashlight, or children's toy, AC ("alternating current)" must be converted to DC ("direct current") to charge a grid battery. When the battery is discharged, it must be converted back to AC again.
In practice, bi-directional inversion wastes 15-20% of the energy used to charge/discharge a grid battery as heat. New studies suggest 90% efficiency is possible, so I used that figure to give grid-scale batteries every benefit of the doubt.
10 + 6 =  16% roundtrip losses.
OT, is Tesla's Gigafactory in Nevada running on 100% renewable energy yet, or is Elon learning how to lie like a good renewables advocate?

Most peaker plants would run for less than five hours at a time...that would mean 50MW..."

50 megawatts? You're thinking in "flashlight" terms again (Moss Landing's capacity is twenty times that).

"What will the price be next year?"

I don't know, let's wait and see. That way we won't be disappointed by another renewables pipe dream!

Joe Deely's picture
Joe Deely on Jul 21, 2021

Bob - you said:

50 megawatts? You're thinking in "flashlight" terms again (Moss Landing's capacity is twenty times that).

Interesting that you think Moss Landing is a "peaker" plant. Generation there was 5TWh in 2019 which was more than 6% of all NG generation in CA.

However, why don't we take this a step further and look at all simple cycle generation in California - this can be found State Electricity Profile for CA - Table 5 - here is screenshot.

The total for all simple cycle generation in CA for 2019 was 15,743,166 MWh.  I have highlighted numbers in red. Interestingly, this is very similar to Diablo output in 2019.

Now if you take that number and divide by 365 you get 15,743,166/365 = 43,131 MWh/day. So that is the average simple cycle generation per day in CA.

 

How much would it cost store 43,131 MWh on a daily basis in Tesla batteries?

Multiple 43,131MWh by Tesla pricing of $278,000 per MWh  = $11,990,685,337.   

 

Obviously using average is not the best way to do this, but it is interesting to see that $12B could potentially replace most of the simple cycle/peaker generation in CA.  

 

At this years prices.

 

 

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