The total global announced capacity for hydrogen projects reached 71.4 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), but 2022 falls short of becoming a record year

KEY INSIGHTS

1. Despite a record 12 Mtpa of project capacity announcements in the first quarter of 2022, the global hydrogen pipeline slowed through the year with only 1Mtpa of new projects announced in Q4 – falling short of total capacity announcements in 2021 by 3 Mtpa.
2. Despite capacity announcements; Developers shifted their focus to de-risking the existing project pipeline
3. The slow-down in project announcements was counterbalanced by record electrolyser manufacturing announcements. A record 45 gigawatt of renewable hydrogen electrolysers (GWe) was announced in Q4 2022,
   1. This takes the total announced nameplate electrolyser manufacturing capacity to 106GWe.
4. THE BREAKDOWN
   1. OEM chased the 360GWe pipeline with a record 83GWe in manufacturing announcements through 2022,
   2. With 45GWe of that electrolyser manufacturing capacity announced in Q4, up 72% from the previous quarter.
   3. 41GWe of the Q4 announcements were from gigafactories based in Africa. 
5. EXISTING PROJECTS PROGRESSING: There was a lack of mega projects announced in Q4 2022, but existing projects saw major progress:

   1. For instance, Shell’s 200MWe ‘Holland Hydrogen I’ began construction in July.  

   2. BP also made headlines in May after announcing its purchase of a majority stake in the $70bn Asian Renewable Energy Hub (AREH).

   3. In the US, the first mega-projects were announced including GHI’s ‘Hydrogen City’, which will add 3 Mtpa to the pipeline, and SoCalGas’ ‘Angeles Link’, adding a further 20 GWe.

BOTTOMLINE

Key Questions to ask are?

1. Has Ukraine war and resulting perceptions on energy security and affordability impacted Energy Transition (speed & direction)? 
2. Would energy security extend the longevity of fossil fuels?
3. Would investments in Blue hydrogen & CCUS outpace the the development of Green hydrogen?
4. Does Energy security and affordability scenario vindicates path taken by US majors on of Shale gas, LNG and CCUS /blue Hydrogen?
   1. Chevron (CVX) & Exxon-Mobil (XOM) shun Wind/Solar; for them becoming electric power generation is option for Utilities
   2. For CVX/XOM, US oil companies are traditionally problem solver led by engineers they see emission as problems not oil & gas
   3. European oil companies, lacked oil & gas reserves have traditionally the traders mind-set dealing in alternatives
5. Europeans need to better manage their energy security. With US becoming net exporter of oil and gas, the CCS/Blue Hydrogen will remain the major focus for emission reduction on this of Atlantic.