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Future power prices continue to fall in Brazil

Rafael Herzberg's picture
Consultant energy affairs, Self employed

Rafael Herzberg- is an independent energy consultant, self-employed (since 2018) based in São Paulo, Brazil* Focus on C level, VPs and upper managers associated to energy related info, analysis...

  • Member since 2003
  • 2,220 items added with 1,294,879 views
  • Apr 8, 2022

Future power prices continue to fall in Brazil

The chart shows electricity prices for future delivery, in Brazil, offered at the beginning of April 2022, from subsidized (blue line) and conventional sources (orange line).

The subsidized sources get a discount on the power bill regarding the demand charges. Ultimately considering this discount the blue line gets the same place as the orange one!

1 USD = R$ 4.8 

Julian Silk's picture
Julian Silk on Apr 8, 2022

Dear Rafael,

Something is odd about this.  Shouldn't there be an effect from the war in Ukraine?


Rafael Herzberg's picture
Rafael Herzberg on Apr 11, 2022

Hi Julian! Your question is super interesting! Here in Brazil most of our power matrix is hydro (75%) and wind (10%). It means that basically we only run thermal power plants (using natural gas, coal, diesel, etc.) when the water reservoirs are low). Therefore our power matrix is not really exposed "heavily" to the fluctuations of the international fiuel prices. On the other hand the Brazilian economy is not growing. Bottom line: supply is abundant and demand weak. Prices fall!

Joe Deely's picture
Joe Deely on Apr 12, 2022

Good to hear that hydro has recovered this year in Brazil - meaning lower fossil fuel usage.

     Brazil expects low thermal dispatch for 2022

Also hope that the continued growth in wind and solar allows Brazil to more effectively use hydro resources. Great combination to use solar/wind first and hydro as backup.

     Brazil planning to add 8.5GW of power generation capacity in 2022.

Brazil has 243 plants totaling 8.5GW of power generation capacity that are scheduled to start commercial operations in 2022, according to data from local watchdog Aneel compiled by BNamericas. 

PV solar power projects lead the list, with 3.1GW of the total, followed by wind (2.6GW), fossil-fuel (1.5GW), biomass (1.1GW) and hydroelectric (195MW) undertakings. 

     Brazil may add another 12 GW of PV this year

Of this new capacity, 8.9 GW may come from distributed generation and 3.2 GW from utility scale solar. By the end of December 2022, the country’s installed solar power should reach 25 GW, according to new figures from Brazilian trade body ABSolar.

Rafael Herzberg's picture
Thank Rafael for the Post!
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