1) Vehicle manufacturers in North America could be at 80% of new car production being zero emission vehicles (ZEV) by 2035 based on their announced plans.
2) Factory capacity in North America is about 18 million vehicles per year. North America has never sold 18 million vehicles in one year. 15 million isa rough average over the last decade.
3) The US fleet is 279 million strong.
4) An average vehicle lasts over 18 years - going through the hands of (on average) 3 owners.
5) Last sales year of ICE vehicles will likely be 2050.
279/15 = 18.6 years
2035 + 18.6 = 2054 (remember 20% of the sales in 2035 will be ICE)
2050 + 18 (average vehicle life) = 2068 - last daily driver ICE off the road (show cars will likely still exist in 2200)
By 2054 - we need to make 42% more total electricity to power cars.
Battery round trip + inverter to turn it back into grid power means a 17% loss (10-12% for chemical round trip, 3-7% loss for the inverter, 2-8% loss for wiring from the inverter to the grid). So if we use 50% of the vehicle's battery for Vehicle to home - that 42% becomes 46% new power
In 2035 we will add (in new car sales) about 4 times the total number of EV's sold to date - 12 million new ZEV.
A hybrid typically uses 10-20 kWh of battery, a battery only vehicle(BEV) uses 50 kWh battery or larger (F-150 lightning is 131 kWh) - meaning we can build 7 to 15 hybrids for each large pickup/full size SUV.
Average battery size is increasing in BEV's with each new vehicle announced.
Just facts to ponder. 🤔
Doug Houseman
Expert Member
Top Contributor
Food for though - Electric vehicles
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