This group brings together the best thinkers on energy and climate. Join us for smart, insightful posts and conversations about where the energy industry is and where it is going.


Food for though - Electric vehicles

Doug Houseman's picture
Visionary and innovator in the utility industry and grid modernization, Burns & McDonnell

I have a broad background in utilities and energy. I worked for Capgemini in the Energy Practice for more than 15 years. During that time I rose to the position of CTO of the 12,000 person...

  • Member since 2017
  • 270 items added with 97,796 views
  • Jan 31, 2023

1) Vehicle manufacturers in North America could be at 80% of new car production being zero emission vehicles (ZEV) by 2035 based on their announced plans.

2) Factory capacity in North America is about 18 million vehicles per year. North America has never sold 18 million vehicles in one year. 15 million isa rough average over the last decade.

3) The US fleet is 279 million strong.

4) An average vehicle lasts over 18 years - going through the hands of (on average) 3 owners.

5) Last sales year of ICE vehicles will likely be 2050.

279/15 = 18.6 years

2035 + 18.6 = 2054 (remember 20% of the sales in 2035 will be ICE)

2050 + 18 (average vehicle life) = 2068 - last daily driver ICE off the road (show cars will likely still exist in 2200)

By 2054 - we need to make 42% more total electricity to power cars.

Battery round trip + inverter to turn it back into grid power means a 17% loss (10-12% for chemical round trip, 3-7% loss for the inverter, 2-8% loss for wiring from the inverter to the grid). So if we use 50% of the vehicle's battery for Vehicle to home - that 42% becomes 46% new power

In 2035 we will add (in new car sales) about 4 times the total number of EV's sold to date - 12 million new ZEV.

A hybrid typically uses 10-20 kWh of battery, a battery only vehicle(BEV) uses 50 kWh battery or larger (F-150 lightning is 131 kWh) - meaning we can build 7 to 15 hybrids for each large pickup/full size SUV.

Average battery size is increasing in BEV's with each new vehicle announced.

Just facts to ponder. 🤔

Julian Silk's picture
Julian Silk on Jan 31, 2023

Food for Thought, please.

Jim Stack's picture
Jim Stack on Feb 1, 2023

More food for thought. Tesla grows by 50% a year. They are now making 2 million vehicles a year.

A hybrid still uses gas and oil. It still uses a transmission with all of it's fluids. It still uses an exhaust system and catclitic converters. It is still only half as efficient as a 100% Battery vehicle.

New batteries are getting lower in price with less intensive material and longer life (million mile battery)each year.

Self driving vehicles can eliminate car ownership by each person. 

The same vehicle batteries and technology is being used in GRID storage (MegaBattery) 

Doug Houseman's picture
Thank Doug for the Post!
Energy Central contributors share their experience and insights for the benefit of other Members (like you). Please show them your appreciation by leaving a comment, 'liking' this post, or following this Member.
More posts from this member

Get Published - Build a Following

The Energy Central Power Industry Network® is based on one core idea - power industry professionals helping each other and advancing the industry by sharing and learning from each other.

If you have an experience or insight to share or have learned something from a conference or seminar, your peers and colleagues on Energy Central want to hear about it. It's also easy to share a link to an article you've liked or an industry resource that you think would be helpful.

                 Learn more about posting on Energy Central »