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Publication
EV Application Shakeout – Part 1
When two or more technologies compete, society wins. Everyone assumes that the best technologies will emerge, but it’s rarely that simple. In many cases, the most cost-effective and market-appropriate technologies will claim the largest segments of a given market, whereas other technologies will occupy smaller niches, and others may not survive. Also, technologies may merge and create hybrid solutions in order to effectively address complex markets or market segments.
I currently believe all of the above is the case for the overall electric vehicle (EV) market. Here we will look at a market that includes ALL significant electric vehicle segments in this two-part series, including the following:
- Road-going vehicles - Part 2
- Off-road vehicles (construction and agricultural) – Part 1
- On-track vehicles – Part 1
- Flying vehicles – Part 2
- Marine vehicles – Part 1
In this series we will address storage technology for electric vehicles, and how I believe that competing technologies will shake out in the next decade or two. Our overall goal is to greatly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the mobility sector.
Discussions
Interesting John. But I'm curious how you concluded that off-road vehicle such as farm and construction equipment would go the EV route?
Are you familiar with Jay Schmuecker's sustainable tractor demonstration project? He described the system in this NH3 fuel conference presentation and also here.
Schmuecker is a former NASA engineer who owns a family farm in Iowa. For his project, he needed the tractor to run 4 hours per day at full power. The usage is extremely seasonal, with half the annual usage in the spring for planting and half for the fall harvest.
The system was planned to be solar PV powered. But rather than a BEV, he chose a hydrogen fueled, spark-ignited 150 hp conversion for his tractor. He installed storage for 4 hours worth of H2 (36 gallon diesel equivalent, using 4 * 136 gallon, 3000 psi tanks), but also opted for an ammonia booster tank, with another 20 gallon diesel equiv (as a single 60 gallon tank).
Battery-electric drive trains are a great fit for personal transportation, which we use for an hour a day (mostly at a low average power), everyday. I would think that most off-road applications would be closer to Schmuecker's tractor, with intense seasonal use for farm equipment, and construction equipment being used in heavy bursts a few weeks long with a break between jobs.
So I would think fueling with a low-carbon fuel would be a better option for off-road. And with the tank sizes being so large for the H2 option, I would think ammonia fuel would be preferable (small ammonia generators like Schmuecker's are much less efficient and cost effective than industrial units, thus H2 was cheaper for him although NH3 is better at large scale with trucked fuel delivery).
John Deere: ‘We believe in electric tractors. 100%’
Also autonomous. Technology for this will keep getting cheaper and better. Its hard to beat that trajectory.
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