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Do you believe in the Brazilian official companies?

image credit: Rafael Herzberg
Rafael Herzberg's picture
Consultant energy affairs, Self employed

Rafael Herzberg- is an independent energy consultant, self-employed (since 2018) based in São Paulo, Brazil* Focus on C level, VPs and upper managers associated to energy related info, analysis...

  • Member since 2003
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  • May 14, 2021

Do you believe in the Brazilian official companies?

For those who follow the news and analysis of the energy world, both originating in Brazil and abroad, there has been a convergence since the end of last year, around the effects of La Niña.

The forecast of meteorologists for Brazil, pointed out important changes in the rain regime and that would affect the level of the reservoirs of the hydroelectric plants, which are the main source of electric energy for the country.

In the opposite spot for the year 2021 would be R$ 91/MWh, consistent only with an expectation of abundant rains in the basins that feed the power plants.

The year tends towards something like double or triple this "estimated" value! How such an important deviation could have been originated?

1) Due to the lack of good analysis on the part of the teams of the various official bodies that direct the Brazilian electricity sector?

2) Because of the need to politically generate a positive expectation, even if not based on good technique?

3) Combination of the previous ones.


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