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Crystal Ball - 2023

Doug Houseman's picture
Visionary and innovator in the utility industry and grid modernization, Burns & McDonnell

I have a broad background in utilities and energy. I worked for Capgemini in the Energy Practice for more than 15 years. During that time I rose to the position of CTO of the 12,000 person...

  • Member since 2017
  • 255 items added with 91,822 views
  • Dec 29, 2022
  • 471 views

First let me state that my crystal ball is old, chipped & no longer quite round.

1)     Energy prices rise by 8-14% YoY
2)     EU wholesale prices will cycle based on weather
3)     Expect lead times for grid equipment to continue to increase. 160 weeks by end 23?
4)     Renewable commissioning will not meet forecasts.
5)     Prices for Li-ion batteries metals will double
6)     Force Majeure increase from battery OEMs
7)     Tesla’s stock price will continue to drop
8)     The prime rate is 8-9% by year end
9)     Supply chains for chips & components are worse
10)  A large blackout happens
11)  Interconnection queues will shorten
12)  Curtailments of renewables in CA is over 3.2 TWh
13)  A pilot plant for sea-water extraction of lithium is finished
14)  Off-shore wind cost increases - putting some projects at risk.
15)  Shortage of engineering talent in the industry will raise wages & slow progress in the design and engineering
16)  Vandalism of substations grows
17)  Cyber-security incidents grows
18)  Energy transition issues will cause a government voted out.
19)  Energy costs will overtake labor costs for industrial relocation.
20)  Rising interest rates will price more people out of EV & rooftop PV

Discussions
Roger Levy's picture
Roger Levy on Dec 30, 2022

Apparently your ‘crystal ball’ has been reading the ‘wrong’ energy industry reports and press releases.  Time to hide that ‘ball’ when you hear the knock on your door.  

Mark Silverstone's picture
Mark Silverstone on Dec 30, 2022

No good news at all?

Jim Stack's picture
Jim Stack on Dec 31, 2022

A very depressing future. Maybe you can look again and see a few positive good things in our future. 

    Maybe look at the great progress and growth of GRID Battery Storage. This is happening after 100 years of wishing for the holy grail of storage for the GRID.

    Also look at the growth of net energy homes and buildings. They can even help the GRID  by reducing Duck Curve Demand. 

      

Julian Silk's picture
Julian Silk on Jan 1, 2023

Isn't there some inconsistency between 1) and 20)?  If demand for electricity and renewables is falling, because of a recession or slow growth, might this reduce the increase in energy prices?

Doug Houseman's picture
Thank Doug for the Post!
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