First let me state that my crystal ball is old, chipped & no longer quite round.
1) Energy prices rise by 8-14% YoY
2) EU wholesale prices will cycle based on weather
3) Expect lead times for grid equipment to continue to increase. 160 weeks by end 23?
4) Renewable commissioning will not meet forecasts.
5) Prices for Li-ion batteries metals will double
6) Force Majeure increase from battery OEMs
7) Tesla’s stock price will continue to drop
8) The prime rate is 8-9% by year end
9) Supply chains for chips & components are worse
10) A large blackout happens
11) Interconnection queues will shorten
12) Curtailments of renewables in CA is over 3.2 TWh
13) A pilot plant for sea-water extraction of lithium is finished
14) Off-shore wind cost increases - putting some projects at risk.
15) Shortage of engineering talent in the industry will raise wages & slow progress in the design and engineering
16) Vandalism of substations grows
17) Cyber-security incidents grows
18) Energy transition issues will cause a government voted out.
19) Energy costs will overtake labor costs for industrial relocation.
20) Rising interest rates will price more people out of EV & rooftop PV