It’s a hot start to the Summer (yes – I am sure we all agree that summer now starts in May regardless of the fact the summer solstice will still always be on June 20).
Among the hottest places in the U.S. these past few weeks has been Texas, including the City of Houston. And in this same period, that city was was hit hard by a major storm that seemingly came out of nowhere, with hurricane level winds. Hold that thought.
The acclaimed novel titled Ministry of the Future is about the creation (in the not-too-distant future) of a new loosely affiliated arm of the UN that goes by that name. Its job is to stand apart from all nations and represent the people of the future as decisions are made (or not made) in the present – especially regarding climate change.
To set the book up, its first part focuses on a particular event that unfolds in India, as seen through the eyes of an aid worker who later ends up as part of the Ministry.
The event is a catastrophe that kills 22 million people. Its cause?
Wet Bulb Temperature.
Many of you mentioned to me that you appreciated the “explainer” on wet bulb temperature in a commentary some number of months ago. For those who didn’t read that one, or who want to be refreshed, WBT is a calculated temperature that combines a temperature reading with a measure of humidity and other factors. It was developed by the US military in the 1950s to prevent heat-related deaths in training camps. Today it is used in some workplaces and for some sports, such as high school football in a few US states.
WBGT is a combination of three measurements:
1. Air temperature is measured by a typical outdoor thermometer.
2. Natural wet bulb temperature is measured by a thermometer wrapped in a wet cloth, which simulates the cooling effect of sweat (which is influenced largely by wind and humidity). Since the thermometer is exposed to the sun, it also accounts for the effects of sunlight.
3. Black globe temperature is measured with a thermometer inside a black globe, which indicates how hot it feels in direct sunlight.
Back to Ministry of the Future …
The only way to survive fatal level WBGT is to find some air conditioning. Unfortunately, India does not have a lot of that. In the novel, Tens of thousands of people flock to bodies of water in hopes of cooling down. But it doesn’t save them. If the water is warm, and the WBGT high, then you simply can’t expel heat from your body through evaporation. You cook and die.
In the novel, the only people in the village where the aid worker is are the ones who cram into the few spaces that have generators, which are necessary because the power grid has broken down.
We of course have a lot of air conditioning in the U.S. (Although roughly 40 percent of school buildings don’t have it as high temperatures continue to creep into the school year). But they did not have A/C in Houston after that recent storm. Millions of people were out of power. And the Wet Bulb temperature was high for that location and other Texas cities. I looked at the charts that some of the school systems were using to make decisions on allowing outdoor athletics.
WBGT got into the danger range in several cities across Texas, and not for the first time. Fortunately, it wasn’t high enough for a long enough period to cause fatalities. Also, U.S. cities are usually able to open cooling centers, including by using generators if necessary. Fortunately, U.S. utilities are well-equipped (although not capable of miracles) in restoring power after storms.
But four things are certain, and if you didn’t think so you have not been paying attention in general.
First, severe storms and immense amounts of rainfall in a small geographic area over a short amount of time is part of our present, just as climate scientists predicted and not just something that might/will occur in the future. Since the period in Houston I am citing, serious storms in some state or region have been an almost daily front page feature.
Second, temperatures are rising in terms of a global average – year after year. They are rising more rapidly than that average in many places. This is also part of our future. Temperatures are not going to go down from here on in, at least not for a long, long time. Whoever made the following statement first was spot-on: “That hot year we recently had? It will be looked back on as when it used to be cooler”
Third, people will not be able to live anywhere they want to under their assumption that the climate zone there will stay the same. Some of those places will be become unlivable other than indoors during some seasons, no matter what their reputation as a desired destination to move to. (Those thinking about moving to Phoenix – I am talking to you).
Fourth, the lowest penetration of A/C is where the highest temperatures (and humidity) are. The developed world will be able to rely on it, but not so for most people around the world. And of course they will want it, and their governments will want to provide it. And the insidious cycle of using carbon fuels to produce electricity which may cause higher temperatures, which will require more A/C will continue.
So … what does all this mean?
Number One – We need to view heat and storms as a serious threat unlike what we have faced in the past. Immediate plans need to be drawn up and implemented. Every city and local government must have a Heat Officer as many already do, with that being the person’s express focus.
Number Two – The electric grid is not just important to our business and social endeavors. It will be important in dealing with extreme heat, and it must be strengthened considerable while also being expanded to allow increased use of distributed energy and renewable resources.
Number Three – Emissions of Greenhouse Gases are still on the rise. Hmmm…I suppose we should not be letting that happen if we really wanted to manage the future and make it more livable?
Again, I say … what does all this mean?
In a 1948 speech in the House of Commons, Winston Churchill modified slightly something that George Santayana originally coined. Churchill said, “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it”.
Surprisingly, we are living in a world today where that axiom doesn’t apply – at least when it comes to climate change. There is no past to learn from. There are no lessons to inform us. We can’t look at things that happened. We must look at things that will happen and make our plans accordingly. There is no history to ignore.
We need to listen to the scientists and other experts. As climate impacts have begun to unfold, they are ones that experts predicted. The only thing they were wrong about was how fast they have occurred.
We must think about what the future will look like and act now (and act fast) to avoid a future we don’t like the looks of.
If Churchill were alive today, I think he might recognize the serious threat of climate change. His new variation of Santayana's quote might go something like this: "Those who fail to learn about the future may be doomed to live in it."