2020 Power Industry Predictions and Trends

Graph by Dr. W. Happer, Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Emeritus, at Princeton University, and former science advisor to the president of the United States on the National Security Council.

The top curve is the theoretical heat loss from the Earth into the vacuum of space for the range of frequencies, assuming no atmosphere. This is Planck’s curve for heat loss from the Earth’s blackbody. (Notations above the curves are of various chemical compounds at their spectral frequencies.)

The sawtooth curve shows the actual heat loss through the Earth’s atmosphere for each frequency, where the percentages of CO2 are 0 ppm, (in green), 400 ppm (in black) and 800 ppm (in red). The sawtooth curve is known as the Schwarzschild curve. (The heat loss for all other compounds are for conditions as they exist today.)

Of particular importance are the circled, red and black, CO2 curves.

These two curves, highlighted by the circle, are virtually the same, indicating that heat loss is nearly unchanged after doubling CO2 from 400 to 800 ppm.

In other words, adding CO2 to the atmosphere so that atmospheric levels of CO2 doubles (from 400 ppm to 800 ppm) has virtually no effect on temperatures. CO2 is saturated, and adding more CO2 to the atmosphere has a minimal effect.

Note that heat loss from the Earth would have been greater if atmospheric CO2 was at 0 ppm, as shown by the green curve.

The fact that CO2 levels can double from today, without affecting temperatures is great news for mankind.

Hopefully this science will put an end to the politics requiring the utility industry to install costly power generation facilities, such as wind and solar, in lieu of using natural gas combined cycle power plants.

It could also put an end to rigged auctions resulting in the removal of nuclear power plants that can’t compete with subsidized wind and solar.

The science of global warming and climate change has increasingly shown that CO2 is not an existential threat to mankind, with climate sensitivity decreasing from an extreme of 8.5 degrees F, with RCP 8.5, to as low as 1 degree F, with the latest forecasts based on actual temperature rise and the latest graphs, such as shown above.

Disassociating investment decisions by the Power Industry from climate change fears will result in improved profitability, lower costs for customers, and greater reliability.