An MIT study predicts that the price of Li-ion batteries, which is expected to decline to $100/KWh by 2030 from between $175/KWh to $300/KWh currently, will only decline to $124/KWh during that time period. At that price point, the cost to maintain a car running on gasoline and an EV will be just about the same, mainly because of raw material prices required to produce Li-ion batteries. Of course, the implications of their findings run beyond the EV industry. For example, it might affect the competition dynamics of grid storage batteries. In case you didn't already know it, Li-ion batteries are used to regulate frequencies.
Could these findings create an opening for alternate chemistries? The study's authors seem to think so. "Deeper cost declines beyond 2030 are likely to require shifts from the dominant lithium-ion chemistry today to entirely different technologies, like lithium-metal, solid-state and lithium-sulfur batteries. Each of these are still in much earlier development stages, so it’s questionable whether any will be able to displace lithium-ion by 2030," the article states.