The primary strategy to combat global warming is to electrify everything. But doing creates a situation that grid operators haven’t dealt with in decades: increased demand. And not just a small increase in demand – a massive one by electricity standards.
Simultaneous with increasing demand, we’re as quickly as possible shutting down power plants running on fossil fuels.
Think about that for a second.
Utility operators who have basically functioned in a predictable environment for decades, and who shun new technology because of the risks posed to keeping the lights on, are all of a sudden being asked to orchestrate two major shifts simultaneously. And they need to do it with an aging and outdated infrastructure.
So, the short answer to the question - are we prepared to handle an increased electric load is no, not by a long shot.
But don’t take my word for it. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC) 10-year reliability assessment is raising a red flag that environmental regulations and energy policies “that are overly rigid” may jeopardize “the orderly transition of the resource mix.”
Translation: we really haven’t thought out this migration to renewable energy and it’s increasingly likely it will bite us in the butt.
At a time that the grid is becoming more unreliable we plan to retire 83 GW of fossil fuel and nuclear generation over the next 10 years. Mind you, unlike wind and solar which are intermittent, these resources work 24/7.
If these retirements occur on schedule, NERC is estimating that the Midwest could experience “shortages ” starting in 2028. In the Southeast potential shortages could occur as early as 2025.
Jim Matheson, the CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association was quoted as saying, “NERC’s latest assessment paints another grim picture of our nation’s energy future as demand for electricity soars and the supply of always-available generation declines.”
It wouldn’t be so dire if we had a solid strategy, but we don’t. Worse yet, in many instances, the stakeholders tasked to make this transition don’t even collaborate.
We need to stop singularly focusing on installing wind and solar and make the grid the number one priority.
#powergrid #gridreliability #powerdemand #nerc #electricutility