The United States is on track to add 17,000 megawatts of new renewable energy capacity per year through 2022, according to analysis this week by Fitch Solutions, with plummeting technology costs and state-level programming offsetting the gradual end of federal subsidies and a continuing regulatory rollback by the Trump administration.

The new installations add up to a 6% annual growth rate, S&P Global Market Intelligence reports. New installations are expected to fall to 11,000 MW per year over the six years that follow, with the disappearance of the country’s investment and production tax credits for solar and wind, bringing non-hydro renewables to 16% of the U.S. electricity mix by 2028.

In spite of potential import tariffs and difficulties with project financing, “the project pipeline across most segments remains robust and the U.S. renewables market continues to attract major domestic and international investment,” Fitch Solutions stated.

But “renewables will not overtake fossil fuels any time soon,,” S&P notes. “The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast generation from natural gas to increase from 34% of U.S. electricity in 2018 to 40% by 2032 and remain at that level through 2050.”