UK and Scottish content baseline and roadmap

Key findings Baseline

• For Scottish projects, Scottish content is much closer to UK content, at 44%, but for non-Scottish UK projects, Scottish content is less than 1%.

• Adjusted relative installed capacities in Scotland and the rest of the UK to those assumed for 2030 reveal that the Scottish and UK content are 18% and 48% respectively. 2030 Vision

• The market characterisation in 2030 identified an annual UK market size of 4GW with a Scottish market share of 40%. The percentage of floating wind in Scottish and UK projects was assumed to be 25% and 5% respectively by 2030.

• For turbines, towers and blades are identified as the most promising investment opportunity in Scotland and the UK.

• Floating foundations presents the most likely investment opportunity for balance of plant, closely followed by monopiles. Jacket fabrication is more likely in Scotland as the most logical fixed bottom technology, although the long-term demand for jackets is likely to be low, particularly as floating foundation costs come down.

• The investment opportunity for installation and commissioning is deemed to be low. In reality, contractors will likely grow their operations at existing sites elsewhere in Europe, unless incentives or local content requirements encourage the growth of UK teams.

• To achieve 60% UK content by 2030, all turbine components, foundations, substations and cables must be procured from the UK. Within this scenario, the Scottish content was 24% and the Scottish content for Scottish and non-Scottish UK projects was 58% and 1% respectively. Higher Scottish and UK content figures are achieved for floating projects rather than fixed because floating foundations are more likely to be constructed locally.

• In the 55% scenario there is no nacelle assembly and fewer foundations supplied from the UK. Scottish content is 22% and the key change is fewer foundations from Scotland. Scottish content in Scottish projects reaches 54% but there is still low supply to non-Scottish UK projects. Higher Scottish and UK content figures are achieved for floating projects in this scenario Roadmap

• The results of the analysis show that for the 60% UK scenario, 15 new manufacturing facilities would be needed in the UK, of which six would be in Scotland. • For the 55% UK scenario, 10 new manufacturing facilities would be needed in the UK, of which four would be in Scotland