A❤️488-word🧡under💛3-minute 💚read.
For the Kool-Aid drinkers, I’m not predicting the demise of Tesla, only its demise as a car company. However, Tesla’s overall survival is predicated on delivering its robotaxi and being a player in the AI space, neither of which is a given.
Tesla was founded in 2003 and delivered its first car in 2008. It enjoyed a decade head start and a competition-free environment until around 2013 when Mercedes, BMW and Toyota started “dabbling” in EVs.
During that time, it developed superior software and an industry-leading charging network, but only a handful of models, none of which included a low-cost EV. It also created a critically important world-class brand on par with Apple.
Fast-forward to today. The competition has become heated, particularly from China. Its technology lead has dwindled. And its most important asset – its brand – is irreparably tarnished.
Apple has succeeded in selling lagging technology because it makes “pretty” products and is virtually the singular brand of choice among multiple generations. If Apple did what Musk has done, its revenues would plummet.
Tesla’s cars are dated and not particularly stylish. It still enjoys some technology advantages, but they will be short-lived. What it’s not likely to retain is being the EV brand of choice, and that’s death blow.
Here are the ugly numbers:
▶ Global deliveries dropped 13% in Q1 versus a year ago.
▶ Sales in China fell 49% in February.
▶ In Germany, home to its European factory, and Europe’s largest market, registrations fell 76% in February.
▶ Overall sales in the EU were down 49% in the first two months of 2025 versus last year.
▶ Revenues from car sales dropped 20% year-over-year and profits dropped 71%. Remove carbon credits sales and Tesla lost money.
Here’s a bright spot:
▶ Revenues from generation and storage were up 67%, and services revenue increased 15%.
But it’s all about the brand, which is now toxic among its core market.
The results of a recent CNBC poll measuring positive and negative attitudes toward Tesla illustrates:
▶ Tesla scored a -47 and Musk a -52 versus a -35 for EVs in general.
▶ Among Democrats, Musk scored a -82, among independents a -49, but among Republicans a +56. Sadly, Republicans don’t drive the EV market.
▶ Men had a neutral view of Tesla while their view of EVs was +11.
▶ Among ages 18-34 Tesla registered a -23 versus a +19 for EVs.
▶ And among those with an income of $100k+ - its primary market – Tesla registered a -19 versus a +10 for EVs.
Here’s a more telling indicator of brand damage:
▶ According to data from EnergySage, in the first two months of 2025, nearly 70% of potential solar buyers looking for quotes asked for an alternative to the Tesla’s Powerwall battery storage.
If the brand damage persists, and extends to all of Tesla’s offerings, it may not survive as a company, period.
#evs #tesla #musk