One of the latest scenarios published by the Australian Energy Market Operator has South Australia reaching 87% renewables in the next 4 years.
Already at over 50% renewables, South Australia is challenged by its position at the end of the long skinny grid that serves the East coast.
The modelling from AEMO includes a new battery and wind farm as well as the retirement of aging gas plants, however it is the new interconnector to NSW from 2023 that is the real game changer.
In the step change scenario the new interconnector leads to a huge new wind and solar build out so that by 2027 gas is only providing 5% of generation (and SA has no coal). The wind and solar is supported by big batteries and virtual power plants.
Even in the BAU scenario, gas only accounts for 15% of generation by 2028.
Also interesting is that the adoption of residential storage is so rapid that “consumer-led growth of storage creates such an abundance of VPP that its market utilisation begins to lag installed capacity.”