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Terry Cooke's picture
Founder & Executive Director China Partnership of Greater Philadelphia

Terry Cooke founded the China Partnership of Greater Philadelphia in 2011 as a 501c3 public-private platform to accelerate commercial and research collaboration between the Greater Philadelphia...

  • Member since 2020
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  • Aug 13, 2020
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The TEA Collaboration blog regularly posts on issues relating to U.S.-China clean energy cooperation.  'The Sixty-Seven Percent Solution" is the latest post from that blog. It provides an overview of the past 12 years of official, Presidential-level cooperation as originally conceived and launched by Hank Paulson, President George W. Bush's Treasury Secretary.

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Thank Terry for the Post!
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Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Aug 13, 2020

Trump’s announcement of U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Accord was on June 1, 2017.  The framers of the Paris Accord, mindful of political cross-winds that can blow in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world, included an Article 28 requirement that a four-year waiting period pass before any country’s withdrawal could be formalized.  The date kicking off that waiting period for the U.S. is November 4, 2016, the day on which the Obama Administration secured ratification by Congress of U.S. entry into the Paris Accord.  So, U.S. withdrawal cannot under any circumstance become official until the day after the upcoming November 3rd election in the U.S.

If Trump were to win & obviously follow through with leaving the Accord, what do you think that would mean for the agreement? Would any other nations then leave, because why stay in it if the U.S. shuns it? Does it signal the need to 'start over' once again? Or can the Accord still be of value in the future without the United States?

Terry Cooke's picture
Terry Cooke on Aug 13, 2020

There will be a global reckoning, I believe, once the results of the November 3rd election are known.  On the one hand, there won't be a simple and full "snap-back" to pre-Trump relationships if Biden wins.  But on the other hand,  if Biden wins, our European allies will be hoping for a renewed U.S. commitment to NATO, our Asian allies will let it be known that they've been holding a seat for us in the TPP, and the Paris Accord signatories would make a show of flexibiltiy -- as I suggest in the post -- about the precise mechanics/timeline of withdrawal.  In the converse case, I think the Accord would continue but there would likely be some defections by countries such as Brazil and Poland.  The critical issue would be how much the U.S. and China both would continue to backslide in the face of the COVID-19-triggered global economic slowdown and as a result of continuing deterioration of the U.S.-China relationship as Xi continues to overplay his hand and as Trump continues to try to isolate and, to a certain extent, demonize China.

 

Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Aug 13, 2020

Thanks for the follow up, Terry-- so much at stake in the next 3 months!

Then, of course, there's the rising concern about what happens if the election results are not immediately known because of any number of delaying strategies and/or lawsuits. Hopefully if the results are up in the air in a Bush/Gore type fashion, that flexibility can extend as much as needed

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