Normally - I wouldn't be a proponent of publications from EIA. Their Annual Energy Outlooks have been laughable in how far they have missed trends - especially in the decline of coal and the growth of renewables.
But, I have to admit they seem to be getting closer to reality lately.
Their latest Short-Term Energy Outlook looks spot on. Coal generation declined by 174 TWh from 2018 to 2019 and EIA predicts a further drop of 124 TWh in 2020 to 848 TWh.
This makes sense because:
- 14 GW of coal retired in 2019 and more retirements are scheduled for 2020
- Huge amount of renewables will be coming online in 2020
- NG prices will be lower in 2020 vs 2019
This means that coal will have dropped from 1,582 TWh in 2014 to 848 TWh in 2020. Almost 50% in 6 years - remarkable.
One last observation - Renewable generation is set to pass coal generation in 2022.