What if the best alternative fuel bridge to a net-zero carbon future for deep-water cargo shipping is no fuel at all?
That is one of the takeaways from DNV’s recent energy transition summit.
Two here-and-now greenhouse gas and fuel reduction options discussed during the maritime risk management company’s event generate no emissions and consume no fuel.
They are not the only answer to how, when, where, what and who will pay the multitrillion-dollar cost to get commercial shipping from here to its net-zero destination, but then there is no single answer – no matter which advocacy group-chat you might subscribe to.
As to how distant that destination remains for shipping, there is one answer: far. Very far.
DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook 2024 estimates that a scant 7.4% of the global shipping fleet today can operate on alternative fuels. More encouraging, however, is that 49.5% of vessels in shipyard order books will have dual-fuel capabilities. [See DNV alternative fuel uptake chart below.]
Still, meeting the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) goals of a 20% well-to-wake greenhouse gas reduction in 2030 relative to 2008 en route to zero-emissions shipping by 2050 will require far higher percentages on all fronts.
That will require more investment in infrastructure, data-gathering and sharing, and standardized pan-global regulatory frameworks, for starters.
And money. Lots of it.
In DNV’s quartet of scenarios estimating capital, fuel, carbon pricing and other costs in a decarbonized 2050 compared with business as usual, the percentage increases range from 69% for bulk carriers up to 112% for container ships.
The scenarios are based on wagers on which alternative fuels will be adopted by the global shipping fleet. Bets today are all over the map. And they are multimillion-dollar rolls of the dice, considering that ships ordered today will still be operating for at least 20 years.
Sunken-asset risks abound.
So far, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is holding the pole position in the alternative propulsion fuel derby. According to DNV, LNG-fuelled ships represent 6.7% of the tonnage for ships in operation.
That places it well ahead of a pack that includes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (0.37%) and methanol-fuelled ships (0.09% of global fleet tonnage).
Hydrogen, ammonia and battery-electric are well into negligible percentages.
All fuel alternatives have pros and cons. So far, the cons (supply, infrastructure, safety and technology challenges) outweigh the pros by a wide margin.
Not a lot of good news there.
However, all is not lost at sea here.
We have the aforementioned no-fuel duo ready to lend a decarbonization hand today.
First up is energy efficiency.
As Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen pointed out in his energy transition summit opening remarks, “Energy efficiency done effectively can contribute significantly to decarbonization, while also driving more profitable operations.”
The DNV Maritime CEO estimated that “operational and technical energy-efficiency measures can reduce fuel consumption by 4% to 16% by 2030.”
That, he added, “can contribute to the bulk of emission reductions necessary to reach that first IMO goal, while also alleviating the pressure on alternative fuels.”
That is also money in the bank for ship owners delivered with predictability and affordability and without any gamble on alternative fuels and fuel technology.
The other member of that look-ma-no-fuels duo has been around as long as ships themselves: wind.
In the 21st century, it is the “W” in WAPS (wind-assisted propulsion systems), and WAPS are increasingly finding favour in top-end shipping circles.
Why?
Because, as DNV senior principal engineer Hasso Hoffmeister points out, “Wind is a renewable and completely free source of energy for ship owners and operators.”
No argument about that value proposition from Cargill International. The global industrial and agriculture products giant has an eye for good value, and efficient technology harnessing wind is good value.
It can also cut a ship’s well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions intensity by up to 5%. And, depending on which way the wind is blowing, WAPS can deliver significant energy savings.
For Cargill’s Pyxis Ocean, those energy savings amounted to around 32% during a six-month test period that began in 2023 after two WindWings sails were installed on the bulk carrier.
Cargill has been assessing WAPS as a shipping decarbonization option since 2017.
Chris Hughes, a Cargill decarbonization specialist, said the company’s investigation of decarbonization options at the time found wind to be one of the few that “could offer more than 10% savings … and could be competitive from a cost perspective.”
The wind is free, but the sails are not.
For the Pyxis Ocean, which Cargill charters from MC Shipping, installing the two WindWings sails cost around US$2.55 million. Incorporating WAPS in the design of new ships would be cheaper.
Other considerations range from variations in energy savings depending on ship size and design to the reliability, ability, maintainability and safety (RAMS) of any new technology.
“And then on the OPEX side, the biggest question mark and challenge we’re facing is the uncertainty about those savings. How much are we going to save if we [install] this technology and operate it on this ship in this way?”
Hughes added that Cargill has yet to reach the long-term savings tipping point that would justify widespread WAPS installations on company ships.
“We think that tipping point is going to be driven by regulations.”
Port infrastructure to accommodate ships outfitted with large WAPS is another challenge.
However, those are not insurmountable problems, especially in the complex world of decarbonizing a transportation sector that moves 90% of goods worldwide.
“We’re not so worried about whether it’s 2% or 20% that we’re saving on these [experimentation] voyages. What we want to do is validate the models that we’re using in our simulations, and then once we trust those simulations, we can use them to make better decisions – to trust our business models.”
The bottom line, however, is that wind is and has always been fundamental to sailing.
And it can be a low-cost, zero-emissions, renewable piece of shipping’s decarbonization puzzle.
“I think we’ve learned a huge amount with the three [WAPS] vessels that we have on the water so far, but we haven't finished learning yet,” Hughes said. “We don't have all the answers … [but] we still believe in our original thesis that wind has and can play an important role in the decarbonization of shipping.’
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