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Renewables still can’t meet the increase in electricity demand
Renewables are not expanding quickly enough to meet the global electricity demand. In fact, renewables only meet around 50% of power requirements in 2021. Unfortunately, fossil fuels, notably coal, have to satisfy the remaining half. Consequently, the power sector is set to produce record levels of CO2 next year, severely threatening global emission targets.
Renewables still can’t meet the increase in electricity demand
Electrifying is a blog founded by Markus Dirnbacher & Michael Bürger to provide useful, critically looked at, and up to date content about the central subject renewable energy, including all different kinds of sustainable energy sources and thereof originating technologies and business opportunities, all with a scientific touch. The Co-Founding Team has always striven for excellence, that will not be any different with their latest project, this blog.
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Markus,
Why focus on the one year(2021) when demand recovers versus looking at the whole chart in article you link to?
The data from looking at all 8 years tells a much different story. Here are the numbers for each of the years.
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Looking at all 8 years we see that Renewables and Nuclear account for more than 70% of the increased generation and coal is a minor player. In other words a totally different story than the one you portrayed.
More importantly looking at the trends - we see Renewables continuing to increase.
I think once we see renewables averaging an additional 600 TWh/year and if nuclear can add 50TWh/year we will see the crossover point where more Zero Carbon is being added on a yearly basis.
Markus - you said:
The 600 TWh/year are not sufficient when the total increasing demand is >1000 TWh/year.
However, the report that you are using does not show that demand increasing by > 1000 TWh/year. Again, you seem to be cherry picking the recovery years. Over the full 8 years shown in the chart demand increased by only 631/TWh per year.
If you look at forecast of generation out to 2030/2040 - shown in Table 6.1 on page 256 of the report you cited - see below - generation increases by an average of 550 - 737 TWh annually depending on the scenario chosen. In other words, substantially less than 1000 TWh/year.
Plus - why would renewable generation stop growing once it reaches 600 TWh in 2022/2023? Solar/offshore wind and batteries are still in their infancy WW.
I think the Sustainable development scenario in the chart below makes the most sense over the next 20 years. There will be a sharp decline in WW coal generation along with a smaller decline in NG. Renewables in the 2030s will be adding more than 1000 TWh/year. Not only will Renewables/Nuclear satisfy increasing demand - they will eat into coal and NG generation.
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