Ammonia bunker demand forecast in Singapore
The demand for ammonia as a fuel impacts ammonia storage capacity calculations (throughput assessment), regulatory considerations, and infrastructural needs.
To forecast the ammonia bunker demand in Singapore, a DNV-led consortium applied a comprehensive bottom-up and top-down approach accounting for the probability of vessels adopting ammonia as fuel, its potential share in a ship’s total energy consumption, carbon taxes, fleet growth, and energy prices.
The Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation (GCMD) has completed a study on ammonia bunkering, paving the way for the decarbonization of the maritime industry. Three scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic) were developed based on past global bunker consumption data and anticipated market conditions
The study aimed to identify the configurations and associated risks of ammonia bunkering, assess the feasibility of mitigating these risks, and highlight measures for a pilot program. It also focused on developing standards for the safe transfer of ammonia during bunkering operations and preparing seafarers and operators to handle ammonia as a bunker fuel.
The study identified suitable locations in Singapore for pilots involving cross-dock breakbulk and shore-to-ship bunkering, as well as ship-to-ship breakbulk and bunkering at Raffles Reserved Anchorage. 400 operational and locational risks identified across the bunkering sites were found to be low or mitigable.
GCMD plans to conduct a proxy pilot involving the first ship-to-ship transfer of ammonia in Singapore's port waters, subject to regulatory approval. The aim is to build stakeholder confidence and user competence for future ammonia bunkering when ammonia-fueled ships become available.
This study represents a critical step in preparing the maritime ecosystem for ammonia bunkering and advancing the energy transition. It sets the stage for a more sustainable and decarbonized future for the shipping industry. The realistic scenario predicts that ammonia will comprise 10% of all marine fuels bunkered in Singapore by 2035, before rising to 37% by 2050.
Given that Singapore’s demand for conventional marine fuels was consistently 20% of global marine fuel demand from 2012–2021, this study assumes Singapore’s demand for ammonia as a marine fuel will reach a corresponding 20% of the global demand for ammonia by 2045.
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