Maritime Forecast to 2050
Our updated outlook for these drivers shows that: — The Initial IMO Greenhouse Gas Strategy (‘the IMO Strategy’) currently drives policy development within international shipping, and the next wave of regulations will take effect from 1 January 2023.
They are the CII, EEXI, and SEEMP Part III.
2 We expect them to have a significant impact on design and operations of all ships. — The IMO Strategy will be revised in 2023, possibly strengthening its emission-reduction ambitions. This will be followed by developing the next wave of regulations including market-based measures setting a price on CO2 and a requirement to account for well-towake GHG emission intensity of fuels.3 — The EU has proposed to include shipping in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the FuelEU 1 Fuels that have no net GHG emissions; see Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) definition of carbon-neutral at https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/glossary 2 Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII); Energy Efficiency eXisting ship Index (EEXI); Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP)
3 Well-to-wake refers to the assessment of GHG emissions from primary production to carriage of the fuel in a ship's tank (well-to-tank, or ‘upstream emissions’) and from the ship's fuel tank to the exhaust (tank-to-propeller or tank-to-wake, or ‘downstream emissions’). See https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Cutting-GHG-emissions.aspx Maritime regulation which aims to increase the use of carbon-neutral fuels through an increasingly stringent well-to-wake GHG intensity requirement. These proposals may be finally adopted later in 2022 and take effect from 2024 and 2025, respectively. — The regulatory and commercial drivers are enabled by supporting frameworks and standards specifying, for example, the setting of science-based, net-zero GHG emissions targets; taxonomies for sustainable activities; sustainability evaluation criteria and calculation methods for the well-to-wake GHG emissions of fuels; and supply-chain emission reporting requirements.
