This special interest group is for professionals to connect and discuss all types of carbon-free power alternatives, including nuclear, renewable, tidal and more.

WARNING: SIGN-IN

You need to be a member of Energy Central to access some features and content. Please or register to continue.

Post

1st 2/3 2020 - Renewables Are 63% of New U.S. Electrical Generating Capacity (and 100% in June-July-August); FERC Forecasts Solar + Wind to Dominate Growth Over Next Three Years!

According to a review by the SUN DAY Campaign of data just released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), renewable energy sources (i.e., biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, wind) dominated new U.S. electrical generating capacity additions in the first eight months of 2020.

Combined, they accounted for 63.3% - or 10,445 megawatts (MW) - of the 16,499 MW of new utility-scale capacity added during the first two-thirds of this year.

FERC's latest monthly "Energy Infrastructure Update" report (with data through August 31, 2020) also reveals that natural gas accounted for 36.5%  (6,029 MW) of the total, with very small contributions by coal (20 MW) and "other" sources (5 MW) providing the balance. There have been no new capacity additions by oil, nuclear power, or geothermal energy since the beginning of the year.

Moreover, all of the 2,781 MW of new generating capacity added this summer (i.e., June, July, August) was provided by solar (1,448 MW), wind (1,309 MW), and hydropower (24 MW).

Renewable energy sources now account for 23.2% of the nation’s total available installed generating capacity and continue to expand their lead over coal (20.1%). [1] The generating capacity of just wind and solar is now at 13.3% of the nation’s total … and that does not include distributed (e.g., rooftop) solar. [2]

For perspective, five years ago, FERC reported that installed renewable energy generating capacity was 17.4% of the nation's total with wind at 5.9% (now 9.2%) and solar at 1.1% (now 4.1%). By comparison, in August 2015, coal's share was 26.5% (now 20.1%), nuclear was 9.2% (now 8.7%), and oil was 3.9% (now 3.3%). Only natural gas has shown any growth among non-renewable sources - expanding modestly from a 42.8% share five years ago to 44.6% today.

In addition, FERC data suggest that renewables’ share of generating capacity is on track to increase significantly over the next three years (i.e., by August 2023).  “High probability” generation capacity additions for wind, minus anticipated retirements, reflect a projected net increase of 27,761 MW while solar is foreseen growing by even more - 30,356 MW. By comparison, net growth for natural gas will be only 23,413 MW. Thus, wind and solar combined are forecast to provide more than twice as much new generating capacity as natural gas over the next three years.

While hydropower, geothermal, and biomass also are all projected to experience net growth (1,030 MW, 178 MW, and 116 MW respectively), the generating capacity of coal and oil are projected to plummet - by 23,881 MW and 5,019 MW respectively. In fact, FERC reports no new coal capacity in the pipeline over the next three years and just 4 MW of new oil-based capacity. Nuclear power is likewise forecast to drop sharply - by 4,630 MW.

In total, the mix of all renewables will add more than 59,400 MW of net new generating capacity to the nation’s total by August 2023while the net new capacity from  natural gas, coal, oil, and nuclear power combined will actually drop by over 10,100 MW .

If these numbers hold, over the next three years, renewable energy generating capacity should account for comfortably more than a quarter of the nation's total available installed generating capacity - increasing from 23.2% today to 27.0% three years hence. Meanwhile, coal's share will drop to 17.4% (from 20.1% today), nuclear to 8.0% (from 8.7%), and oil to 2.8% (from 3.3%). Natural gas' share will barely budge - increasing to 44.7%, compared to 44.6% now.

In fact, renewables’ share could be even higher. Over the past one and one-half years, FERC has been regularly increasing its renewable energy projections in the monthly “Infrastructure” reports. For example, eight months ago (in its December 2019 report), FERC forecast net growth over the next three years of 48,254 MW for renewable energy sources - i.e., 11,187 MW less than its latest projection.

 "Renewable energy sources continue to displace fossil fuels and nuclear power ... and the trend is accelerating," noted Ken Bossong, Executive Director of the SUN DAY Campaign. "Depending on the results of the upcoming election, they are poised for explosive growth in the years ahead."

 

# # # # # # # # #

 

[1] Capacity is not the same as actual generation. Capacity factors for nuclear power and fossil fuels tend to be higher than those for most renewables. For example, in 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that renewables accounted for 18.2% of the nation's total electrical generation - that is, somewhat less than was their share of installed generating capacity (22.1%) for the same period. Conversely, coal's share of generating capacity in 2019 was 20.9% while its share of electrical generation was 23.3%.

[2] FERC generally only reports data for utility-scale facilities (i.e., those rated 1-MW or greater) and therefore its data do not reflect the capacity of distributed renewables, notably rooftop solar PV which - according to the EIA - accounts for nearly a third of the nation's electrical generation by solar. That would suggest that the total of distributed and utility-scale solar capacity combined may be as much as 50% higher than the solar capacity of 4.1% reported by FERC -- i.e., closer to 6%.


Sources:

 

FERC's 6-page "Energy Infrastructure Update for August 2020" and its 7-page "Energy Infrastructure Update for July 2020" were both released on October 19, 2020. Both can be found at https://www.ferc.gov; open the link "Industries and Data," then follow to "FERC Staff Reports and Papers," and then to "Energy Infrastructure." For the information cited in this update, see the tables entitled "New Generation In-Service (New Build and Expansion)," "Total Available Installed Generating Capacity," and "Generation Capacity Additions and Retirements."

The U.S. Energy Information Administration issued its "Electric Power Monthly" report for calendar year 2019 on February 26, 2020. The data cited in that update can be found at, or extrapolated from:
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_es1b
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_es1a 

Discussions

Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Oct 20, 2020

Combined, they accounted for 63.3% - or 10,445 megawatts (MW) - of the 16,499 MW of new utility-scale capacity added during the first two-thirds of this year.

Combine that with the closures coming pretty exclusively with fossil fuels, and you're seeing a really steep trend upcoming!

Get Published - Build a Following

The Energy Central Power Industry Network is based on one core idea - power industry professionals helping each other and advancing the industry by sharing and learning from each other.

If you have an experience or insight to share or have learned something from a conference or seminar, your peers and colleagues on Energy Central want to hear about it. It's also easy to share a link to an article you've liked or an industry resource that you think would be helpful.

                 Learn more about posting on Energy Central »