“It’s the Methane…(Stupid!)” or  “The Bridge Fuel is a Highway to Hell”

“It’s the Methane…(Stupid!)” or 

“The Bridge Fuel is a Highway to Hell”

            May 19^th I debated an American Gas Association (AGA) representative on the role of natural gas in the clean energy economy as part of the K&L Gates law firm and Clean Tech Alliance quarterly debate series. The video recording is available at https://www.cleantechalliance.org/debates-at-kl-gates-series/. This blog is part one of a two-part series that summarizes my opening comments. My comments in full with citations and references will be available shortly via my linkedin site. This blog highlights the imperative to cut methane now, through the electric generation sector. My second blog discusses how we kick our methane habit. 

There is no doubt that methane levels in the atmosphere have increased –more than double pre-industrial levels.  It is well understood and well documented by the IPCC, the EPA, and others that methane accounts for about 25% of the warming that is causing climate change. Emissions from gas are responsible for a large portion of the increase of methane in the atmosphere. Because ethane is 80+ times more potent than carbon dioxide in heating up the earth’s atmosphere, and short-lived (20 years vs 100), methane today plays a disproportionate role in the climate emergency. 

For AGA’s member base – gas distribution utilities – by the time gas is at the “city gate” most of the methane has already been leaked, flared, and vented, in the process of extraction, refinement, and transport. That said, transitioning off gas in homes and businesses – would benefit the climate emergency. We need gas system transition plans that lay out smart managed paths to large changes in the gas industry. But, it is important to understand that by relative magnitudes, residential and commercial gas use is the “tail of the dog”. Power plants use nearly 40% of all gas, industry a third, residential about a sixth, and commercial about a tenth.  Transitioning off gas in homes and businesses would produce incremental changes over a long period of time. The climate emergency demands significant actions now. Power plants use nearly 40% of all gas, industry a third, residential about a sixth, and commercial about a tenth.  

I’d like to take you back to Obama’s 2012 State of the Union Address, where he said that “if extracted safely, natural gas is the ‘bridge fuel’ that can power our economy with less of the carbon pollution that causes climate change.” The uptick in the production and use of gas on Obama’s watch was immense. Fast forward: By November 2019, the United States became a net exporter of all oil products. Two-thirds of gas globally in the last decade has been US and Canada fracked shale oil. While getting off coal is critical to climate, (and my god, could we please hurry that up!). While US energy independence good for the national interest, methane leaks unburned at every stage from extraction to combustion, whether a power plant or the top of your stove, beyond methane, fracking has a host of other environmental, health, and safety issues. In other words: Fracking is one Hot Mess!

It’s important to recognize the difference between emissions and concentrations: think of a bathtub: emissions are what is coming out of the faucet, sinks are the drain, and atmospheric concentrations are the level of water in the tub.  If emissions coming in are larger than the sinks (what is going down the drain), the water level rises.  We need to get to net zero emissions, or the point where what is coming out of the tap is balanced by what is going down the drain, to stabilize methane levels in the atmosphere. While EPA data that emissions from gas have decreased 24% since 1990,  we need at least another 75% reduction by 2030 compared to those levels to be on a sustainable track. 

A 2015 NASA study found methane concentration levels unchanged for years, but increased sharply after 2006, with upwards of 75% of the methane increase attributed to fossil fuels. And concentration levels really spiked last year, even though we were all inside for most of the time. A recent NOAA study found that methane concentrations in the atmosphere doubled 2018, with 2018 and 2019 the two biggest yearly increases since 2000, that is, until 2020 smashed through all records. Why? Scientists say that our atmosphere could be losing its ability to break down methane, like an old air conditioner that’s on its last legs. 

There is a way forward. Methane is short-lived. The atmosphere responds quickly to changes in methane emissions. Reducing methane now can provide an instant way to slow global warming by up to 30%. In other words, we turned up the global heat fast with methane, and, we can turn it down, quickly, by reducing fracking and gas use. The biggest, fastest, bang for the buck in reducing gas use is in electric generation: Continued progress in wind and solar, coupled with advances in battery storage, are now eclipsing gas generation in terms of cost and performance. (see my linkedin site for a paper on this topic.) I’d like to highlight some very recent RE performance: The Texas grid operator ERCOT post-event data from the Feb disaster showed Texas renewables over-performed winter forecasts by 6.34 GW while gas underperformed by 15.8 GW. When partnered with distributed energy resources, beginning first with demand response and energy efficiency, we can cross the gas fuel “bridge”.  What killed coal was not the environment, but the economics from the technological progress in the extraction of gas and gas power plants. The same holds true today for gas generation: price point on RE+storage is close to if not equivalent the operating cost of new gas gen. That’s about half of the total cost of a gas power plant.

John Kerry, US climate czar: US should not build anymore gas infrastructure b/c the US will be stuck with stranded assets in 10, 20, 30 years. Gas is increasingly a stranded asset now. Building new gas infrastructure – power plants, LNG facilities, and retail distribution lines paints the US and global communities into a deadly corner. And yes, there is no single electric grid in the world that is being powered soley by RE+storage. But there are plenty of boots on the ground examples of RE+storage beating the pants off of gas generation. What I am speaking to is the CUSP: the point of transition between fossil fuels and clean energy. Multiple studies indicate that U.S. utilities can reach 80+ percent carbon-free generation by 2030 without increasing costs or threatening grid reliability, even with electricity demand increasing from electric vehicles and retail conversion from gas to electric.

Before closing this first of my two-part blog, I need to touch on LNG.  The US position re LNG exports troubling to say the least. LNG exports have skyrocketed in past 12 months, up nearly one third, and are expected to double by 2030. DOE Secretary Granholm’s support of LNG at her confirmation hearing is particularly alarming. “LNG shipments are often bound for countries that would otherwise be using very carbon-intensive fuels for power generation and industrial production.”

What the hell is our country doing in this back to the future paradigm, “gas as the bridge fuel”? Yes, China and others are still building coal plants. But the baseline of comparison should no longer gas relative to coal. And, how about those massive tankers transporting LNG overseas, referred to by some experts as “floating bombs”?

Stay tuned for part two: How we can kick our methane habit.